Frequently Asked Questions

Dr K Market Direction Model
It has been few days since you updated your Market Direction Model. Is it showing a sell signal after the last few distribution days. If not, can you elaborate how far are we to seeing a sell signal.

It is best not to second guess the model as I have so far found no additional performance boosts by attempting to 'jump ahead' of the model's buy or sell signals. And trying to predict when the model will switch signals is challenging. That said, if we get close to a change in signal, we will send out a report noting this, though this does not mean to act on it until the model actually makes the switch, since 'getting close' to a change in signal does not mean a change will soon occur. Sometimes, the market will surprise reverse its direction and continue higher (or lower if the case may be).

The model issues on average between 12 to 20 signals per year (though more frequent in volatile, trendless years such as 2011), as it aims to capture intermediate term trends in the market, so expect updates with that sort of frequency, with the occasional update occurring in between or close to a change in signal, such as the report we put out yesterday (September 22, 2010) in the Market Lab Report.

Published: Sep 24 2010, Modified: May 2 2012