MDM - Jumping to Conclusions

Published : December 1 2010 at 11:41 ET

We would like to request that members please not email us mid-day asking us if we have any "insight" or "feeling" that the model will switch to a buy signal today. If we get a follow-through today, then yes that would cause a change in signal, but so far we are only 2 hours into the trading day.

Also, the logic of such emails escapes us, since they seem to assume that we are withholding some information about the model's signal which we will disclose to a few members who email us asking for it without disclosing that to all members - the ultimate "insider information!" If and when there is a change of signal for the model, ALL members will receive that email. Please do not clog our system up with emails asking this type of question, because it is quite silly if you think about it for one second. It is interesting to see how many investors want to anticipate everything based on one day's action while at the same time looking for some sort of "certainty" which simply does not exist in the stock market, at least not in real-time. If the percentage moves in the indexes hold up today, and the volume remains higher than yesterday, then we have a follow-through day and the model probably switches to a buy signal assuming enough leading stocks also act properly. We won't know until we get closer to the close, and that is enough for us. There is no "insight," and there are no "feelings," there is only the objective evidence, and for now we need to see a bona-fide market follow-through to see a change in signal.

That said, we observe that this market is screwy and volatile with all the gap-up, gap-down opens we have seen over the past couple of weeks.

This information is provided by Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2016 Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC. All rights reserved.