MDM - Switch to Neutral
As we wrote, the risk in switching to a buy signal on 12/7 was minimal so was worth doing. With QE2/POMO and the Bush tax cuts a big step closer to being extended, the market could potentially drift higher into the holidays which is also a seasonally strong period. That said, on 12/8, the model switched to a sell signal. The failsafe was at 2625, or a risk of 1% using a 1x vehicle such as QQQQ, which also meant low risk in entering a position at the risk of being whipsawed.
While the NASDAQ Composite hitting 2625 did not automatically mean the model would switch out of its sell signal if hit, the market can historically, barring any bad news out of areas such as China or Europe, drift listlessly higher into the New Year, thus the model has switched to neutral once again. While whipsaws are never nice, the strength of the model is being able to minimize the inevitable losses along the way then score big when the market goes into a trend, either up or down. Thus to score the big gains, it's important to psychologically withstand the small losses.
Whatever your recent losses trading ETFs since November 16, if they are beyond your risk tolerance levels, use smaller position sizes for all ETF trades so you are trading within your comfort zone. The triple digit gains achieved in a 3x ETF vehicle such as TYH are enticing, but remember, drawdowns along the way to get to that huge gain can be expected, and may be beyond your maximum risk tolerance level, so position size accordingly.
To put this into perspective, since November 16, whipsaw has been the order of the day. While whipsaws are never nice, the strength of the model is being able to minimize the inevitable losses along the way then score big when the market goes into a trend, either up or down. Thus to score the big gains, it's important to psychologically withstand the small losses.
To illustrate the volatility and risk/reward of the model, here is what occurred had you bought or shorted TYH on buy or sell signals:
September 1 buy signal through November 16 sell signal was a gain of +46.54%.
November 16 sell signal through December 1 neutral signal was a loss of -8.07%.
December 7 buy signal through December 8 sell signal was a loss of -2.79%.
Here is what occurred had you bought or shorted QQQQ on buy or sell signals:
September 1 buy signal through November 16 sell signal was a gain of +13.97%.
November 16 sell signal through December 1 neutral signal was a loss of -3.12%.
December 7 buy signal through December 8 sell signal was a loss of -1.04%.
Note how the 1x QQQQ is roughly about 1/3 the gains or losses of the 3x TYH.
The model has now once again hit its failsafe at 2625 and issued a change in signal, with the loss being about 1% on the QQQQ and about three times that on the 3x ETF TYH. Following the model was a risk worth taking, in order to capture the big gains when they do occur. And historically, the big gains have always offset the small losses. For past results, go here: http://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/results
And to offset losses during these whipsaw periods, our stock recommendations, most of which are outperforming the general market since our recommendations, will continue as we let the stocks tell us what to do. For past recommendations, go here: http://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/reports
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