MLR - Q&A Part 2 - Results: I joined mainly for the Market Direction Model, but it has not performed very well in the last three months.

Published : February 21 2012 at 9:42 ET

Here are the results since the model's recent true signal issued on 1/25/12:

NASDAQ Composite: +5.23%

TNA (3-times ETF tracking Russell 2000): +14.39%

TYH (3-times ETF tracking Russell 1000 Technology): +19.04%



Despite 2011 being one of the most trendless and volatile years, the model managed to outperform.

Here is an example of a trendless period earlier in 2011, followed by a series of true signals, using NASDAQ Composite as benchmark (QQQ is a good proxy as a 1-times ETF):


Performance of the model during the 5 false signals during the difficult trendless period of 5/5/11 to 7/27/11:



Performance of the model during the 5 true signals from 8/2/11 to 10/7/11:



For the use of 3-times ETFs, you could multiply the above by a factor of 3 to get a rough approximation of gains and losses, though keep in mind that some 3-times ETFs are more volatile than other 3-times ETFs.


Go here to see the long term results to get a sense of the model's profit and loss:

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