MLR - Q&A Part 2 - Results: I joined mainly for the Market Direction Model, but it has not performed very well in the last three months.
Here are the results since the model's recent true signal issued on 1/25/12:
NASDAQ Composite: +5.23%
TNA (3-times ETF tracking Russell 2000): +14.39%
TYH (3-times ETF tracking Russell 1000 Technology): +19.04%
Despite 2011 being one of the most trendless and volatile years, the model managed to outperform.
Here is an example of a trendless period earlier in 2011, followed by a series of true signals, using NASDAQ Composite as benchmark (QQQ is a good proxy as a 1-times ETF):
Performance of the model during the 5 false signals during the difficult trendless period of 5/5/11 to 7/27/11:
Performance of the model during the 5 true signals from 8/2/11 to 10/7/11:
For the use of 3-times ETFs, you could multiply the above by a factor of 3 to get a rough approximation of gains and losses, though keep in mind that some 3-times ETFs are more volatile than other 3-times ETFs.
Go here to see the long term results to get a sense of the model's profit and loss: http://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/results
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