MLR - Please comment on the status of MDM's sell signal and on your new timing model UVXY/TVIX. Also, please tell us about your upcoming book slated for release with Wiley & Sons

Published : June 2 2012 at 15:21 ET

The UVXY/TVIX model is a work in progress but is starting to show promise in real-time once a couple adjustments were made. The next several weeks should reveal more strengths and weaknesses in the model as signal changes get emailed out to members in real-time and results are shown in the results section. UVXY/TVIX model has a potential advantage of quick but significant gains over short periods due to the volatile nature of these instruments. It is a matter of handling downside volatility while maximizing upside volatility. UVXY/TVIX can potentially complement the market direction model (MDM) since UVXY/TVIX tends to be both short and intermediate term. So for example, on the current MDM sell signal, should the market have a weak bounce, UVXY/TVIX could potentially issue a counter signal to smooth out the temporary loss from the market bouncing over a few days. And of course, when both models are in agreement (MDM on sell, UVXY/TVIX on buy or MDM on buy, UVXY/TVIX on sell), greater profits will result if in agreement with general market direction.

Interestingly, in 2011, if buy and sell signals in Market Direction Model (MDM) were applied to UVXY, the UVXY model would be up 207.8% purely on sell (short) signals, while up only 3.2% purely on buy signals, since 2011 was a trendless, volatile year though with one significant period where sell signals handsomely paid off. From Jan 2009 - Dec 2010, the UVXY model using 1-times VXX (since UVXY nor TVIX were not yet trading), the UVXY model would be up 280% purely on buy signals, and up 18.0% purely on sell (short) signals. It makes sense buy signals were much more profitable in 2009 and 2010 since these were largely quantitative easing driven bull markets. Note, since VXX is 1-times, it can be assumed that returns would have been roughly twice what are shown if using a 2-times vehicle such as UVXY or TVIX.

For Market Direction Model (MDM), the sell signal remains. For those who may have missed it and stayed in cash, realize that you are still better off than most investors who are mostly losing when the market is in a downtrend. Cash is king during such periods. That said, going short or buying inverse ETFs provides at least twice the benefit relative to the general markets since if the market is down x%, you are up x%, or 2x% or 3x% if in a 2-times or 3-times inverse ETF. Anyone know what's better than a king?


Q: I bought your Trade like an O'Neil Disciple book over a year ago and I really found it very informative. I am new to the trading world, only 32, and I really appreciated all the aspects your book covered. The psychological points of view and the mistakes will be worth their weight in gold. I've also bought almost a dozen books from your recommendation list. Your book has been a great help and I have read it many times.

Anyway, your About Us page says you both are working on a new book for summer 2012 release. Is this going to be a follow-up or continuation of your 1st book? What will the book topic be? Any information would be greatly appreciated as I will definitely be adding it to my growing collection. Thank you to both of you for taking the time to put all of your information in a book to help all of us striving to become better traders.


A: Our new book is slated for Wiley's fall line-up, so expect it to launch around September. It will be an in depth examination into our methodology, enabling the reader to understand on an emotional and intellectual level how we trade. It will also include a psychological assessment in terms of how the reader sees the market, an in-depth analysis of the trades we did in 2011, and how we were able to well outperform the market averages that year, a year of trendless, news driven, gap-up/gap-down volatility. A trading simulation and a multimedia segment will be included since visuals are important in training your 'chart' eye.

As an aside, the book will include commentary on 2012 which has been the most challenging year so far, as based on performance records shown by the trend following wizards who are collectively down this year. Fortunately, such periods come to an end.

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