Another important reason for the decline in bitcoin related instruments and MSTR/MSTU which may keep the selling pressure on bitcoin alive:

- On October 10, 2025, MSCI formally announced an extended consultation on how to treat “digital asset treasury companies” (DATs) in its Global Investable Market Indexes.[1][4]
- MSCI explicitly proposed excluding companies whose digital asset holdings are ≥50% of total assets, and it published a preliminary list of potentially affected names (including MicroStrategy / “Strategy”).[1][4][5]
- The consultation runs through December 31, 2025, with final conclusions due by January 15, 2026, and any changes implemented at the February 2026 index review.[1][6][7]

## Link to MSTR and BTC price action

- JPMorgan put out a note warning that Strategy/MSTR could be removed from key equity indices (including MSCI USA), and estimated billions of dollars of potential forced outflows from passive/index-linked holders if exclusion happens.[2][8][3][9]
- Commentary from banks and crypto media explicitly connects the sharp underperformance of MSTR versus BTC to mounting fears around this MSCI decision, not just spot BTC weakness.[2][10][3][11]
- Some analyses also tie the October 10 crypto market break to the MSCI consultation announcement, arguing that the structural index-risk headline hit sophisticated players first, with the retail/press narrative catching up only once JPM and others highlighted the index angle.[5][11]

## On “advanced copies” and early positioning

- MSCI’s consultation notice itself is public and timestamped October 10, 2025, including the proposal, criteria, and preliminary list of names.[1][4]
- Large brokers, banks, and index-arb/quant shops typically monitor MSCI communications in real time, and many are also part of MSCI’s regular client consultation machinery.[12]
- While there is no hard public evidence that ~500 firms literally received “advanced copies” before October 10, it is entirely realistic that:  
  - Big institutions watched MSCI’s consult page and email channels closely and reacted immediately.  
  - Clients involved in the earlier phase of “stakeholder outreach” understood where MSCI was leaning before the formal public posting.  

So your causal chain—

1. MSCI quietly socializes a DAT-exclusion framework with big stakeholders.  
2. Those institutions begin derisking MSTR/other DATs ahead of or right as the October 10 notice goes live.  
3. The broader market ignores it until JPMorgan (and others) explicitly frame it as a massive passive-flow risk and show the divergence of MSTR vs BTC.  
4. The decision date of January 15, 2026 becomes a structural overhang—

is fully consistent with the documents and sell-side notes that are out there.[1][2][10][5][3]

## How to trade / frame it going forward

- Binary event: Jan 15, 2026 is effectively a structural “index inclusion” binary for MSTR and similar DAT names; exclusion likely triggers sizeable forced outflows over the Feb 2026 review window.[1][6][7][3]
- Risk premia: Until then, market should assign a discount to equity proxies whose value is heavily index-flow–dependent and mostly BTC-beta, versus direct BTC exposure.  
- Information edge: The only potential “edge” now is being more precise about how much of each name is held by MSCI-linked and other index products, and how much selling a removal would imply, relative to daily liquidity.  

So MSCI’s DAT consultation and index-exclusion risk is a highly credible structural driver of the MSTR underperformance and part of the October–November BTC-proxy correction narrative, with the key formal catalyst date sitting on January 15, 2026.[1][2][10][3][9]

Meanwhile, Saylor has stated that index exclusion could result in volatility and outflows from passive funds tracking MSCI, but he views MicroStrategy as a pioneer in Bitcoin treasury strategy, continuing to offer shareholders exposure to Bitcoin outside traditional index structures. Furthermore, he reiterated that macro trends and institutional demand for Bitcoin remain strong, and believes that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and global appeal will persist through such regulatory and market structure changes.

Citations:
[2] JPMorgan Flags “Severe” Index Risk for MicroStrategy as ... https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/179931
[4] Update to the Preliminary List of Digital Asset Treasury ... https://app2.msci.com/webapp/index_ann/DocGet?pub_key=xKkRZcJQZeM%3D&lang=en&format=html
[5] Strategy Counters MSCI FUD Tied to October 10th Bitcoin ... https://btctimes.com/strategy-counters-msci-fud-tied-to-october-10th-bitcoin-crash/
[6] MSCI considers excluding crypto-treasury companies from ... https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605076536
[7] Digital Asset Treasury Firms Face Pressure from MSCI Index Exclusion https://www.markets.com/news/msci-index-digital-asset-treasury-companies-exclusion-2539-en
[8] JPMorgan warns of MicroStrategy delisting risk from major ... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-warns-microstrategy-delisting-risk-103045451.html
[9] Strategy may face billions in outflows if excluded from ... https://seekingalpha.com/news/4524738-strategy-outflows-msci-indices-exclusion-jpmorgan
[10] MSCI May Exclude Digital Asset Treasury Firms, Putting “ ... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/msci-may-exclude-digital-asset-075439803.html
[13] Strategy Isn't in S&P 500. Now It Could Get Kicked Out of ... https://www.barrons.com/articles/strategy-sp500-msci-indexes-c35cbcc5
[14] If Strategy is removed from major indices such as MSCI, it ... https://www.panewslab.com/en/articles/75742dee-bf0a-4008-ba65-637c5347aecd
[16] Strategy risks $8.8 billion in outflows as MSCI exclusion ... https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/22f32e98-e53d-406e-aded-dc61217e77a7
[17] [PDF] Sustainability Report 2024 - Swire Pacific https://www.swirepacific.com/storage/fm/2024SustainabilityReport/report-en.pdf