Top sectors rally at the start of the trading year

AI data center, semiconductor, and uranium stocks all surged on the first day of the trading year due to a revival in AI-related demand. Reports were sent to members identifying specifics stocks that became actionable.

Trump wants to:

  • Run the economy hot by printing money and boosting nominal GDP.

  • Keep oil (and gasoline) prices low to avoid inflation eroding voter confidence.

Trump’s seizure of Venezuelan oil is potentially a political maneuver to control energy prices and sustain cheap consumer fuel during massive fiscal expansion.

Two major scenarios can evolve:

  • Bullish case: Nominal GDP and credit rise while oil prices stay low → strong equity and crypto markets.

  • Bearish trigger: Rising oil and bond yields spike inflation and volatility forcing the Fed to slow the printer which risks an asset correction. Ray Dalio wrote, "It also means that if interest rates rise, which is possible as there are growing supply/demand driven pressures (i.e., supply is increasing while the demand picture is worsening) to have happen because the value of money is declining, all else being equal, it will have a large negative effect on the credit and stock markets." 

    • Supply surge: $10T+ U.S. debt rollover in 2026; Trump's fiscal expansion (tax cuts, tariffs, deficits) adds trillions more bonds.

    • Demand weakness: Foreign buyers (China/Japan) waning amid dollar decline; domestic demand softens as yields lag inflation.

So even though central banks have been lowering rates and easy money out of US via Trump looks likely, printing erodes currency value which fuels inflation. Tariffs have already paused some global cuts. On the other hand, with AI pushing GDP higher and the yield curve steepening, this is traditionally a recipe for higher markets since global liquidity should continue to briskly expand based on the slowly upturning ISM readings. So even if rate cuts are delayed, QE in all its forms fuels global liquidity even without rate cuts.

MSCI decision bullish for BTC and ETH but...

Despite MSCI's decision not to delist MicroStrategy (MSTR), the index provider warned later that bitcoin-holding companies like MSTR risk future exclusion from its indices. MSCI's benchmarks aim to track operating companies, potentially disqualifying firms primarily serving as investment vehicles for digital assets; further research is needed to differentiate operational crypto use from pure investment holdings. No immediate delisting or 50% asset threshold applies, but MSCI will freeze updates to share counts for such firms, blocking index weight increases from issuances like MSTR's at-the-market offerings. This adds pressure to MSTR, whose enterprise value has fallen to 101% of its bitcoin holdings (at $93,200 per BTC), wiping out its prior premium and limiting bitcoin purchases: a 1% holdings increase now requires issuing about 4 million shares (diluting bitcoin per share by raising share count 1.15%), or turning to costly 11% preferred stock, threatening its core pitch of delivering high-beta bitcoin exposure to investors.

So MSTR could still encounter some resistance though this should have only a minor affect on Bitcoin and related instruments.