Q: Here's someone who has been timing the stock market for 42 years ! and the last 5 years, cumulatively, have been the worst in all that time (with last year particularly bad). Could this be saying something about the deterioration of the country in general, or the long term viability of timing?
A: Quantitative easing (QE) has certainly created first-time challenges for market timing. That said, my Market Direction Model seemed to be the lone man standing in 2011 when it outperformed the averages. 2012, however, has been brutal all around, and the trend following wizards continue to be collectively down for the year, a highly unprecedented situation. These guys are considered some of the best in the business: http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-september-2012/
Fortunately, these unusual periods always come to an end. Alternative strategies also evolve, such as my UVXY model which seems to be on track as of its last 3 signals.
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