Here are the results since the model's recent true signal issued on 1/25/12:
NASDAQ Composite: +5.23%
TNA (3-times ETF tracking Russell 2000): +14.39%
TYH (3-times ETF tracking Russell 1000 Technology): +19.04%
Despite 2011 being one of the most trendless and volatile years, the model managed to outperform.
Here is an example of a trendless period earlier in 2011, followed by a series of true signals, using NASDAQ Composite as benchmark (QQQ is a good proxy as a 1-times ETF):
Performance of the model during the 5 false signals during the difficult trendless period of 5/5/11 to 7/27/11:
-4.1%
Performance of the model during the 5 true signals from 8/2/11 to 10/7/11:
+30.3%
For the use of 3-times ETFs, you could multiply the above by a factor of 3 to get a rough approximation of gains and losses, though keep in mind that some 3-times ETFs are more volatile than other 3-times ETFs.
Go here to see the long term results to get a sense of the model's profit and loss: https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/results
This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.