Frequently Asked Questions

Dr K Market Direction Model
I was curious as to the reason why your Model would switch to a buy today and IBD's Big Picture did not go back to Confirmed Uptrend? What is the benefit of your model over IBD's model?

We do not use IBD's Big Picture as their writers at times have contradicted their own rules, thus confusing readers. My  Market Direction Model is based on statistical studies going back many decades. I have worked with it in real-time under fire since 1991, so I rely on my model as I know its strengths and weaknesses.

In 2009, I examined all of IBD's market calls since they started making them in Dec 1994. I found that my model had, not surprisingly, well outperformed theirs (MDM 31.1%/yr vs. IBD 14.8%/yr). That said, their track record still puts IBD's Big Picture among the very few timing systems that actually can outperform the market over a number of market cycles. The results from this study are shown in the FAQ:

How has Dr K MDM systematic model done against some of the best timing sites on the internet?

Published: Mar 4 2011, Modified: Dec 23 2011