How the Market Direction Model has performed since our August 11, 2010 launch
Hot off the press:
Using NASDAQ Composite as the benchmark with NO leverage, the returns since the first live signal on August 11, 2010 when Virtue of Selfish Investing was launched have been:
+32.4%, or +52.3% on an annualized basis, using 3-times ETF TNA with NO leverage, 100% long TNA on a buy signal, 100% short TNA (TZA is the inverse) on a sell signal, 100% cash on a neutral signal.
Using the NASDAQ Composite (1-times ETF QQQ would make a good proxy), the returns have been:
+11.1%, or +17.9% on an annualized basis, 100% long NASDAQ Composite (QQQ is a good approximation) on a buy signal, 100% short NASDAQ Composite (PSQ is a good approximation) on a sell signal, 100% cash on a neutral signal.
Keep in mind that we are in an entirely unique quantitative easing (QE) driven environment, making it favor the buy-and-hold method, where you sit in an index and just hold, since QE1 and currently QE2 have prevented the general markets from selling off more than -10% since March 2009, with May 2010 being the exception when QE1 ended. But buy-and-hold only works during uptrending markets, and we all know that markets do not go up in a straight line.
Case in point, had you bought and held most any major index or mutual fund from January 1, 2010 to September 30, 2010, you would have made almost nothing, and had you become disgusted with the markets and sold in August 2010, you would have lost money. Meanwhile, our Market Direction Model scored +28.0% over this same timeframe [Jan 1, 2010 to Sept 30, 2010] using NO leverage (NASDAQ Composite as benchmark), and 3-times ETF TNA scored a whopping +119.9%.
The model's track record is shown here: https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/results