Our Stock Market Timing Services
To simplify investing with our Market Direction Model signals which have well outperformed every market cycle back to 1974, and to potentially boost your profits with our stock buy, sell, and short signals which account for much of our success as investors and our verified/audited track records (Kacher: KPMG, Morales: Rothstein Kass). Even if you have no time to watch the stock market, you can make money during these challenging times. We make the process simple. You will receive emails as soon as there are updates to any of the services below. We have set up the site to do this so there is no time delay in getting updates to our subscribers. We also are building an extensive Q&A database so you can optimize your personal psychology and fine-tune your investment strategy, if you so choose.
Dr K Market Direction Model: This service will be of most use to those who have little or no time to watch the stock market. We make the process as simple as possible. Email updates will be sent to you with precisely what ETFs to buy. The type will depend on the strength of the buy or sell signal issued by the model. The model has kept us on the right side of the market since the 1990s and is largely responsible for our verified/audited track records.
While I created the algorithms in the early 90s as a student in grad school, this work eventually became my Market Direction Model which combines trend following with price/volume action of the major indices and leaders. I continued to refine the algos as my ability to identify proper distribution and confirmation days improved. I realized then that the limitations of the 'M' in William O'Neil's CANSLIM© were not the fault of the system, but were the fault of operator error, ie, difficulty and confusion in properly interpreting such days.
Some might argue proper interpretation is subjective, but it is rather the act of analyzing and integrating many variables (price/volume, shape of price/volume action, market indices and leadership) into a complete picture. Needless to say, this requires considerable experience. I liken it to O'Neil's uncanny ability to 'see' the subtle differences between a nearly perfect base and a less than perfect base and all the degrees in between. No one would say O'Neil's ability to do this is subjective but the result of decades of experience analyzing millions upon millions of charts. Since 1991, my ability to 'see' continues to improve, but as O'Neil once told me, always be a student of the market. Once you think you've mastered it, the market WILL throw you for a loop. So always stay vigilant and focused.
We are in a highly unusual market environment, and with the advent of high frequency trading and the like, a few question whether price/volume action and trend following are still applicable. My answer is a resounding yes. My Market Direction Model is up +55.1% from June 9, 2009 - June 9, 2010 in a test fund using actual money, with exposure to the market less than half the time as audited by Rothstein Kass. In a separate account that is not using actual money, I wanted to see how my system held up against a volatile instrument such as the 3x technology ETF TYH, going 100% long on buy, 100% short on sell, and 100% cash on a neutral signal. Such instruments did not exist until late 2008, so this gives big opportunity for profit that did not exist before. From June 1, 2009 - May 28, 2010, it is up +215.1% (see Results page). Of course, due to the highly aggressive nature of this account, drawdowns as high as -18.5% were not unusual but that is the price to pay to get to +215.1%.
The bottom line is that trends still occur even in these highly unusual times. Just ask Michael Covel who wrote the excellent book "Trend Following" which contains in-depth interviews with successful long-time trend followers John Henry, Bill Dunn, and Ed Seykota. And yes, while such noted trend followers have been encountering difficulty since 2009, they are no stranger to steep drawdowns, and in their 25+ year careers, have always more than recovered, thus maintaining the integrity of their long term track records. In their careers, there have been periods where trend following and price/volume action was declared dead but what makes them unique is they continue to apply their systems through thick and thin, knowing the markets will always trend again.
UVXY volatility model: Go to results page under UVXY model to see the results to date. Go here to read up on this model: http://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/results/dr-k-uvxy
Pocket Pivot Review: This is the original home of the pocket pivot buy point, a buy point created by Dr. Chris Kacher who created the pocket pivot in 2005 when the sideways choppy markets of 2004-2005 were making base breakouts fail. But what does not kill you makes you stronger, and the pocket pivot concept was born. We will email you any top quality stocks that had pocket pivots on that day. Base breakout buy points will be included as they technically fall under the pocket pivot concept which is, in essence, a favorable buy point in a stock. Buying pocket pivots are to our advantage because they get us into a stock early often before it breaks out of its base. It also enables us to add to a position in a winning stock as such stocks often have multiple pocket pivot points as they move higher. You will receive an email during or at the end of the trading day after we have done our analysis. On some days, there may be no stocks that have pocket pivots or there may be many. We tell you when to buy, but you must determine when to sell based on your own personal risk/reward.
Follow the Stock / PSDude: Learn to master your emotions when it comes to trading. In this section we maintain a Portfolio Simulator where we create a hypothetical portfolio and show how our trading character, Portfolio Simulator Dude, would handle it in real-time using a slower, methodical approach that might be typical of an individual investor who works a regular day job and has no time to watch the market all day, every day. Portfolio Simulator Dude feels the emotions that every trader including ourselves have encountered in their trading. It humanizes trading so members can be more aware of the emotional side of trading, since mastering one's emotions are more than half the battle.
Note, the Portfolio Simulator is a hypothetical portfolio, and is not intended as a recommendation service. As well, it does not in any way reflect what Gil Morales or Chris Kacher are doing in their own accounts, as they have reasonably divergent styles and so may not handle a stock or a portfolio in a similar manner to each other or to the Portfolio Simulator. It is however, our best effort at showing how one can build a portfolio and handle it in real-time, using a slower, methodical approach, and is primarily intended as an educational "benchmark" for members to follow.
Please make careful note that Follow the Stock reports are not intended as a buy/sell alert service for VoSI members to follow in their own investing. If members wish to take a position in the same stocks we mention in FTS reports, then that is their own decision. The intent of these reports is to give members an idea of how we handle stocks in real-time given our different trading styles, and is in no way intended to act as a trade-by-trade guide or map for members' own trading in their own accounts. Members can compare and contrast how we are handling a position relative to their own thoughts and handling of the same, and of course we always welcome your relevant feedback if you have any comments of your own to add to the action of various stocks being discussed.
Buyable Gap Ups: Stocks with strong fundamentals and technicals that are gapping up will be flagged. We discuss the conditions for buyable gap ups in the FAQ section 'keyword: gap' and in our book. You will receive an email at the end of the trading day after we have done our analysis, and can thus buy these stocks the next trading day. As with pocket pivots, we tell you when to buy, but you must determine when to sell based on your own personal risk/reward preferences.
Short-Sale Set Ups: We will email you in real-time any stocks we believe can be shorted. Gil Morales is one of the best if not the best at short selling individual stocks as his audit shows. His triple digit percentage return in 2001 was due primarily to selling short individual stocks, and the doubling of his account in May 2010 was also due to his being on the short side at the right time. In bear markets, there are liable to be a larger number of quality short-sale set ups. We tell you when to short, but you must determine when to cover based on your own personal risk/reward preferences.
Market Lab Report: The 'Market Lab Report' will provide our analysis on stocks and the markets as warranted. Expect to receive reports periodically. In it, we discuss our thoughts about and approach to the current market environment, including the thematic basis for actionable stock ideas. This is not a one-way, "bull market only" service, as we will provide actionable short-sale ideas during bear markets. We believe that the trend should always be your friend, whether bull or bear.
OUR WEBINAR SERVICES
Webinars: VoSI founders Gil Morales and Dr. Chris Kacher will discuss the current market conditions and individual stocks in real-time, or near to real-time (e.g., after the close), via live GotoWebinar.com presentations. It is beyond the scope of the website to provide personalized investment advice, evaluations, and recommendations - if every VoSI member asked us for such advice it would overwhelm our resources. To provide a forum for such questions, however, we have provided a live webinar service wherein attendees can ask specific questions regarding certain stocks or other securities. Otherwise we provide personal investment consultative and advisory services at a starting rate of $5,000 per month for investors interested in having us work more closely with them in a personal, one-on-one format.
They will conduct at a minimum one webinar per week, but when market conditions warrant, such as during unusual market activity spurred by news events, additional webinars will be scheduled. Members can attend these webinars live via GotoWebinar.com or view via a private webinar link where VoSI will post video recordings of the presentations within a few hours after their live conclusion.
Through these webinars, subscribers will be able to get a sense of how Gil and Dr. K implement their broad range of market techniques and specific methodologies in real-time as they pertain to current market conditions and leading individual stocks. To further benefit subscribers, open Q&A sessions will follow each main webinar presentation and discussion.
Capacity is currently limited to 500 subscribers. To subscribe, go here.
MEMBERS CHAT LOUNGE
We are pleased to announce that we now have a members only chat "lounge" where VoSI members can hang out and engage in constructive market banter. Given the size of the VoSI community we felt it was time to turn it into a "collective mind," and the VoSI Member's Lounge has been created with this in mind.
Given that the VoSI community is comprised of a rather sophisticated group of traders and professionals, we expect that everyone will abide by basic rules of courtesy and avoid any behavior more suitable for the playground.
The door to the VoSI Members Lounge can be found on the Members Home page, and members have the option of using Java or Flash to access the lounge.
This website gives investors access to the continuous, real-time thinking of two experienced traders who have studied, employed, and written books on all aspects of the William O'Neil (CANSLIM), Nicholas Darvas, Richard Wyckoff, and Jesse Livermore methodologies. We believe we can help members not just profit but also improve their skills as an investors. Should you have little to no time to follow the stock market or have no interest in reading about it, then our services "Dr K Market Direction Model" and possibly "Pocket Pivot Review" would be of most use. See our archives for examples of each service, and feel free to email us with any questions you may have. As former portfolio managers for William O'Neil + Company, Inc., we have had wealthy individuals offer to pay us several thousand dollars for a single day of being able to sit down with either of us, one-on-one, and watch how we implement our methods in real-time. Like Jesse Livermore, we prefer to trade alone, so this idea has had little appeal to us. However, through this Web site we can provide individual investors with similar access and in the process help out those who need it most, for a lot less than several thousand dollars a day and in a manner that is not an imposition to our trading day.
Members of any of our services will receive immediate email notifications. This way, you can receive the signal change on your computer, your phone, or your PDA in real-time. You should act on the email recommendation as soon as possible to fully benefit from it. Both Gil Morales and I will discuss our thoughts in the email update as warranted as it relates to the current market environment. Non-members can view a history of email updates with a two month delay.
Many have asked on the Gilmo Report (www.gilmoreport.com) exactly how we buy, pyramid, and sell stocks. We discuss some of our buying and selling strategies in the Archives/Articles section of the website in the article "Making Over 18,000% in the Stock Market in 7 Years." Returns discussed in that report were verified by the big four auditor KPMG.
Getting started is quick and easy:
- Decide how much capital you wish to invest.
- Have a look at the FAQs. The most important points concerning the Dr K Market Direction Model are discussed:
- The strengths and weaknesses of the model.
- The systematic portion of the model is 100% mechanical. Money can be made in both up and down markets. There is also a discretionary component that is automatically available to members.
- The model achieved a +51.9%/yr since the start of 2005 using 3-times leverage. Annual returns were even greater prior to 2005 using 3-times leverage. Of course, 3-times leverage also means drawdowns will be 3-times what they would be using no leverage. Each member must determine their own risk comfort levels.
- Dr K Market Direction Model (MDM) beat the top 2 timing sites with track records at least 5 years long as tracked by TimerTrac on both an absolute return and risk/reward basis. TimerTrac is the authoritative site on tracking the performance of market timing sites.
- Dr. K MDM has a built-in self-protection circuit which generally seeks to keep maximum drawdowns to a minimum.
- This model is largely responsible for keeping Dr. Kacher on the right side of the market with respect to the prevailing general market trend at any given time, and thus has been a factor in his long term track record that dates back to the early 1990s. Gil Morales did not employ the model during this period, and in fact has never employed the model in his own personal trading. Dr. Kacher and Gil Morales do in fact currently manage accounts for the public using the model. Until 2009, the model, as a tool for generating buy/sell/neutral signals for the purpose of investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), was never implemented in an actual real-world account using actual funds.
- We were both interviewed in the first chapter of Kevin Marder's book "Conversations With Top Traders" and contributed to the book "Wiley Trading Guide, Volume II". We published a book called "Trade Like An O'Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market," in 2010 through John Wiley & Sons.
- This website applies to:
- those who have no time to follow the market
- those who do follow the market and wish to use the timing signals to adjust their market exposure on the long or short side
- those who wish to learn how we trade individual stocks in real-time
- those who want a broad yet in-depth understanding of the current market environment
Both Gil Morales and I believe successful investing is not about being on the bull side or the bear side, but on the right side. My market direction model can help shed light down the often dark and treacherous pathways that are part and parcel of investing in the stock market, and our ability to pick the right stocks make for a formidable symbiosis.
Best Wishes for Successful Investing,
Dr. Chris Kacher
MoKa Investors, LLC
Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC
MoKa Investors, LLC
Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC