Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL. After Powell’s hawkish testimony, CME FedWatch now shows the next rate cut in May, not March. We continue to monitor https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME since when it pushes into the range of 0.3% to 0.5%, that is usually the start of a recession. This time, however, the Fed's liberal and frequent use of quantitative easing (QE) could postpone recession. But the landing may still be hard suggesting that even if the market finishes higher by the end of the year since 85% of election years finish higher, it could do so with greater volatility.
Market Direction Model - Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL on January 31, 2024
| Published: | 31 Jan 2024 15:48 ET |
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