Market Lab Report - Premarket Pulse 2/12/16
Major averages finished lower but staged an upside reversal off lows on higher, above average volume. The S&P 500 undercut its prior major low of 1812 finishing midbar while the NASDAQ Composite finished closer to the top of its trading range. Though the downtrend remains intact, such high volume partial reversal days can signal a temporary low to allow for sharp bear market bounces where renewed short-sale opportunities will surface.
That said, any bounce may be shorter-lived than expected as the put-to-call ratio has spiked a number of times recently along with bearish advisers persistently outnumbering bullish ones, yet the market continues to fall underscoring the inherent weakness in the averages.
Thursday's rally was triggered after crude oil traded near a 13-year low but then rallied after OPEC discussed the possibility of cutting production. Such talks are not uncommon but so far have not resulted in any firm conclusions on production cuts.
Futures are up almost 1% as oil jumps roughly 5% on continued speculation of production cuts by OPEC suppliers. The Market Direction Model (MDM) went to cash yesterday so all MDM-related positions should have been sold.
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