MDM - MDM Model switches to Sell April 19, 2012

Published : April 19 2012 at 9:26 ET

The Market Direction Model (MDM) has switched to a sell.

A potentially sideways to downtrending market is more likely at this juncture due to the following factors:

1) The recent 10-day moving average violation in leaders such as AAPL and PCLN after several weeks of obeying the 10-day along with the subsequent bounce on weaker volume often results in sideways and/or further corrective action.

2) More weakness out of Spain may make the prior bounce in European markets one of a dead cat variety.

3) 4 distribution days on the NASDAQ Composite out of the last 7 trading days, and 10 distribution days on the basis of a 20 day rolling period indicate clear selling pressure despite leading stocks having held up relatively well. The action in AAPL and PCLN were tipping points.

4) Quantative easing is still alive and well but there will be bumps along the way so capitalizing on such bumps can bring profits. Given QE, the duration of sell signals will probably be shorter than normal.


Suggested inverse ETFs:

Note: While one could trade the NASDAQ-100 related ETFs such as PSQ and SQQQ, AAPL is still a bellweather and such stocks don't usually top immediately but take time to round out their topping patterns, thus Russell 2000 related ETFs have been and will probably continue to be weaker should the market remain corrective.

1-times inverse

RWM - Russell 2000 small cap 1x bear. It should approximate 1x the inverse of the Russell 2000.

2-times inverse

TWM - Russell 2000 small cap 2x bear.

3-times inverse

TZA - Russell 2000 small cap 3x bear.

EDZ - MSCI European emerging markets index 3x bear. Note, there are 1x and 2x equivalents but they are too thin so we would suggest position sizing in EDZ according to your risk tolerance levels.

This information is provided by Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2016 Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC. All rights reserved.