MLR - Premarket Pulse September 3, 2013
After selling off on Friday after Secretary of State John Kerry's "tough talk" regarding Syria on Friday, futures are up sharply this morning although well off of their highs after the Obama Administration announced over the weekend that it would seek authorization from Congress before proceeding with any punitive strike against Syria. Given the U.S. public's overwhelming disapproval of such an action, it is not clear that Congress will move quickly to give the Obama Administration a green light. If Congress does move quickly to approve a Syrian strike, this could send the market back to the downside, so investors cannot assume anything at this juncture as the situation ultimately remains unclear.
European stocks enjoyed a strong rally on Monday. Some analysts including those at Danske Bank are speculating that it’s the end of the debt crisis in Europe after PMI data from Markit showed that even the weakest euro-zone countries have turned a long-awaited corner.
While Germany and the U.K. are the two strongest countries of the continent, weaker sisters such as Spain and Italy now seem to also be bouncing back.
In Spain, the manufacturing sector saw a return to output growth for the first time since April 2011, with a reading of 51.1 in August, up from 49.8 in July. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI for Italy rallied to a 27-month high of 51.3.
Should this recovery persist than just be a dead cat bounce, central bank money printing out of Bank of England and European Central Bank should slow sooner than later. And since the U.S., U.K., and European economies are closely linked, recovery in Europe also increases the odds of a sustainable recovery in the U.S.
Since central banks want to err on the side of the dove, they will most likely continue to print money until it's quite clear that global economies are back on track. Markets could thus continue to rally as quantitative easing (QE) which has artificially propped stock markets higher is replaced by recovering economies. Bulls would argue that stock markets lead economies so the U.S. market which has been in a bull market since 2009 bodes well for the global economy since the U.S. is still the world's strongest economy. On the other hand, bears would argue that we are in the fifth year of this old bull which was artificially propped higher by QE, so a big correction is imminent.
This Friday's jobs number may also serve to influence the market as the question of QE tapering remains an open one. In the short-term this is serving to keep the market in a highly news-oriented state, resulting in volatility as the market remains in what is so far a relatively shallow correction.
Whatever happens, price/volume action of leading stocks and major indices will be our guide as always.
KKD gapped down at Friday's open on a weak earnings report. If a stocks gap down, my rule is to just sell it at the open since they become quite unpredictable, and can easily move lower from the gap down point as KKD did today.
Vipshops (VIPS), which we first reported on when it issued a bottom-fishing pocket pivot on July 15th around $32 before launching to $50, came back with a pocket pivot buy point on Friday as it also bounced off of its 10-week moving average.This Friday's jobs number may also serve to influence the market as the question of QE tapering remains an open one. In the short-term this is serving to keep the market in a highly news-oriented state, resulting in volatility as the market remains in what is so far a relatively shallow correction.
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