SSS - The Apple (AAPL) Mosh Pit, Part 3

Published : January 11 2013 at 10:04 ET

We are getting asked about AAPL so much these days that even U.S. News & World Report is asking us about our "dead right" call on AAPL based on articles we wrote in Forbes and over a month ago. Now that the major media is picking up on AAPL's weakness, we have to wonder whether this isn't a contrarian bottoming signal. The clearest picture, however, is offered by the daily chart, below. We can see that the stock picked up some buying volume yesterday as it held what has been near-term support over the past 4-5 days at the 115-116 price area. Unless AAPL were to breach this level on some decent selling volume, the pattern remains inconclusive, although it would also not surprise us to see the stock start to engage in a reflex rally off of these lows if the general market continues to exhibit strength. Shorting stocks, even "weakies" like AAPL in a strong market uptrend can be much like tinkling into the wind, and when it comes to AAPL, if the general market continues to rally strongly then it will likely resist breaking down, at the very least. So far, the stock has seen resistance in the 530-535 area, roughly the peak of its recent range, while the 515-516 area appears to offer support. It is simply a matter at this point of watching to see in which direction the current pattern resolves itself, but yesterday's pick-up in supporting volume may be a clue in this regard.

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