Major market indexes started the second trading week of the New Year with a sharp tech-led rebound rally after a brutal week of selling to start off 2024 the week before. A slightly hot CPI number on Thursday sent the market lower early in the day but the NASDAQ Composite recovered from a point near the 20-dema to close flat. On Friday, the PPI came in light, but the market did not rally. In fact, it did not much move at all as it again closed roughly flat. This has the look of churning amid a wedging rally as the market reacts quite indecisively to first a higher-than-expected CPI number on Thursday and then a lower-than-expected PPI on Friday.
The SEC finally approved several spot Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) ETFs on Thursday, but that turned out very badly for the crypto space as the entire range of crypto-related stocks, from Coinbase Holdings (COIN) to CleanSpark (CLSK) to Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Microstrategy (MSTR) were crushed on Thursday and Friday. With the spot Bitcoin ETF, investors that were locked in can finally sell their GBTC shares. GBTC held $25bn+ worth of Bitcoin that has been locked up for years with no option to be sold. So while the spot ETF is bullish over the long run, the ETF providers will unlikely have this much demand as quickly compared to even one-fifth of the $25bn+ being sold. 
Bitcoin $BTCUSD as of Sunday afternoon was clinging to 50-dma support as volume declines following a confirmed base-failure on Wednesday as it busted the 20-dema to trigger a short-sale entry at that point. We might expect a reaction bounce to the 20-dema in textbook fashion for a potential late-stage failed-base (LSFB) short-sale set-up in progress. Generally, a break below the 20-dema as the prior breakout fails eventually finds support at the 50-dma whereupon a stock or, in this case, a crypto currency, will bounce between the 50-dma and the 20-dema before resolving lower. For now, $BTCUSD is holding 50-dma support and it could be argued that the weekend action is so far indicating potential moving average undercut & rally (MAU&R) long entries at the 50-dma as Bitcoin shakes out along the line.
Meanwhile, gold and silver sprang to life on Friday following a light Producer Price Index (PPI) report and news that U.S. and U.K. military forces had bombed Houthi targets in Yemen. Both the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) and the Aberdeen Physical Silver Shares (SIVR) gapped higher on Friday but stalled as volume came in well below that necessary to declare this bottom-fishing buyable gap-ups. Both did, however post potential long entry signals the day before as OUNZ posted a supporting pocket pivot at the 50-dma and SIVR a price undercut & rally (U&R) long entry at the prior 21.56 low of December 13th.
The only place where we saw a bona fide bottom-fishing buyable gap-up (BFBGU) emerge in the precious metals space was in recently beaten-down big-stock gold miner Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI). The stock posted a BGU move on Friday as volume rose to 56% above average. This is actionable on the long side using the 13.03 intraday low as a tight selling guide after Friday's 13.25 close. Note that like OUNZ, GFI posted a price U&R on Thursday along its prior 12.40 low of November 13th.
Nvidia (NVDA) was the stock of the week on the long side as it triggered a Jesse Livermore Century Mark long entry on Monday when it streaked through the $500 level. It closed Friday at 547.10 and held tight on a closing basis so this move could continue higher from here. This was something we were looking for per our discussion of the stock in our New Year's weekend Focus List Review report. For now it remains out of buying range.
In early December we reported on Arista Networks (ANET) as a continuation pocket pivot as it popped off the 10-day moving average in a breakout move from a short flag formation. This past Monday we again reported on a similar continuation pocket pivot on a gap-up move through the 10-day moving average as the stock stair-stepped to new highs. ANET indeed finished the week at all-time highs as it begins to lose near-term momentum.
On Thursday we reported on AI-Meme stock semiconductor darling Arm Holdings (ARM) as one to watch along the 69.00 left-side peak of its current chart pattern. This chart actually has some two-side dynamics here. If it breaks decisively below the 20-dema and the 69.00 left-side peak it would trigger a potential double-top short-sale (DTSS) entry using the 69.00 price level or the 20-dema as a covering guide. If it can hold 20-dema as it did on Friday with volume drying up to -38.2% below average it could technically be treated as a VDU long entry point using the 20-dema as a selling guide.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) switched to a CASH/NEUTRAL signal on Thursday, January 11, 2024.