Dr K VIX Volatility Timing Model (VVM)
The VIX Volatility Model (VVM) has been replaced with the Trading Volatility Report (TVR). The issue is that since April 2017, the market has traded in a manner that does not favor risk/reward in the version of the VVM that was adjusted on April 3, 2017.
Meanwhile, the old version of VVM (pre-April 3, 2017) remains nicely profitable, up +74.8% year-to-date (as of end of September 2017- note I will not be updating the pre-April 3, 2017 VVM's performance but feel free to email me if you would like to know how it is performing).
Depending on market conditions, I may bring out the pre-April 3, 2017 or current version of VVM at a later date, but our thinking has been as follows:
Our vision at Virtue of Selfish Investing has been to teach the investor how to fish optimally, rather than give them the fish. While both timing models are for those who don't have the time or inclination to follow the market, it is better to shelve the VIX Volatility Model at this time.
Some signals in both the former and current versions of VVM are sensitive to the minute during volatile periods such as when the UVXY spikes. It is therefore far more instructive and useful to each member to understand how to trade the UVXY than to rely on email updates on time-critical signals.
That said, the UVXY and XIV are both often not quite so time-sensitive. Thus future reports on volatility will deal with potential entry points on both the UVXY and XIV in an instructive manner. It will be up to each member to decide for themselves where to enter the trade and where to exit the trade. In some cases, we will provide guidance on both sides of the trade.