Market Direction Model - Model switches to BUY on April 23, 2026

Published:

23 Apr 2026 11:18 ET

MDM will resume its BUY signal.

The stock market continues to rocket higher to fresh all-time highs even as the headwinds remain intact. Traders are in full FOMO mode, treating every piece of chaos as a reason to buy because “the market climbs a wall of worry.” They’re penciling in ever-higher targets for the year, ignoring the AI capex overspend issue, its bottlenecks, slowing global liquidity, and a market priced for perfection given its high valuations. Further, Trump said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine but that never happened. So when he says the Iran situation will end in a few weeks or less, it's hard to believe. The price of oil could easily shoot higher.

That said, supply side deflation driven by AI and robotics will likely be a forcefully bullish event but is at least a year or two away, and Raoul Pal's burst of global liquidity due to the massive $7–10 trillion debt rollover will boost markets but this won't likely hit until late this year though markets are forward looking. In the meantime, the pace of global liquidity continues to slow until at least late Q3 (September '26). But right now, the combination of geopolitical easing + AI growth narrative is overpowering the headwinds.

Suggested ETFs (Note: Many members buy the standard ETFs or their preferred ETFs. This list serves as a guide as to which ETFs we think may outperform, but the key point is to be on the right side of the market regardless of which ETF or ETFs one chooses.)

1-times

SPY (S&P 500)
QQQ (NASDAQ-100)

2-times

SSO (S&P 500)
QLD (NASDAQ-100)

3-times

UPRO (S&P 500)
TQQQ (NASDAQ-100)
TECL (Direxion Trust Technology)

NOTE: This is a suggested list. Investors may wish to become acquainted with the full range of available ETFs, and should make an effort to understand how these ETFs are created and what their components are, as well as being aware of the downside risks involved, especially with leveraged ETFs. Certain ETFs may be more appropriate depending on one's risk tolerance levels. Typing in keyword 'ETF' into the FAQ keyword search bar or going here https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/faqs/search?p=1&q=etf and visiting this site https://etfdb.com/ can be instructive.

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