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Market Direction Model - Model switches to BUY on April 3, 2023

MDM has switched to a BUY signal. 

Note, this remains a highly event driven market thus is recommended for those who wish to take on this added risk, and underscores the choppy, news driven nature of the major averages since February. Despite rising interest rates in the US, UK, and EU to combat high inflation, global M2 overall continues to rise due much to monetary easing out of China and Japan. Further, the number of commodity trading advisers (CTAs) are currently betting about US$26 billion against the S&P 500, the largest short position since October 2021. This has created short squeezes the last 5 out of 5 times CTAs were this bearish.

On the creation of money, the Fed is protecting depositors by having created the Bank Term Funding Program to avoid a bank run. They've pledged $25 billion but will likely have to do far more due to the $620 B in bank bond losses. JP Morgan thinks the Fed may have to create as much as $2 trillion to deal with the crisis. But there's also the additional $1-2 trillion for the Fed to backstop the big 4 banks as well as Sunday evening's announcement that the Fed and other global central banks increase the frequency of dollar swap line operations to daily from weekly, underscoring the seriousness of the situation. 

This potentially ushers in a stealth form of QE5 despite rising rates in an inflationary environment. This together with increasing M2 from China and Japan could help markets trend higher. One caveat is recession looms which would push markets lower when it hits later this year unless the Fed is forced to print faster than expected. This would be due to the $3-4 trillion put to banks as well as other connected black swans such as 1) unfunded liabilities from pensions and IRAs and 2) hundreds of billions of dollars in commercial real estate (CRE). This could restart the bull but at the price of even higher inflation. But the Fed wants to avoid higher inflation at all costs as it threatens the sovereignty of the dollar so it will only print just enough as bringing inflation down to 2% remains at the top of its focus.  

Suggested ETFs (Note: Many members buy the standard ETFs or their preferred ETFs. This list serves as a guide as to which ETFs we think may outperform, but the key point is to be on the right side of the market regardless of which ETF or ETFs one chooses.)

"Stuff" stocks, ie, commodity-related plays should continue to do well, thus the S&P500 and its related ETFs should continue to show strength. That said, techcentric NASDAQ Composite and TECL often lead with outperformance on a percentage basis under more normal conditions.


SPY (S&P 500)



SSO (S&P 500)



UPRO (S&P 500)


TECL (Direxion Trust Technology)

NOTE: This is a suggested list. Investors may wish to become acquainted with the full range of available ETFs, and should make an effort to understand how these ETFs are created and what their components are, as well as being aware of the downside risks involved, especially with leveraged ETFs. Certain ETFs may be more appropriate depending on one's risk tolerance levels. Typing in keyword 'ETF' into the FAQ keyword search bar or going here https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/faqs/search?p=1&q=etf  and visiting this site https://etfdb.com/  can be instructive.

This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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