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Market Direction Model - Model switches to BUY on January19, 2024

MDM has switched to a BUY signal. Both the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 are at or near new all-time highs as they look to resume their uptrends. Based on the Dec CPI and PPI, the upcoming core PCE to be reported on Jan 26 at 830 am ET will likely be mild.  The modelers who forecast this expect core PCE rose 0.17% from Nov.  This would lower the 12-month rate to 2.9%. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates would fall to 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. 

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Further, the US central bank continues to print to honor various expenses such as interest of record levels of debt which now exceed the annual defense spending budget. Total debt stands at more than $34 T. This trend is likely to accelerate even without a black swan. As debt increases, so do the interest payments. Ray Dalio has studied such cycles going back hundreds of years. When debt becomes this large, governments never roll it back but instead continue to print which further devalues fiat. The inflation megatrend is well at hand. So while the Fed can pretend to reduce its balance sheet, QE remains at the ready. 

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What can derail the continuation of the uptrend are economic numbers that badly miss expectations which increase the odds of rate cuts. Economic numbers that come in not too weak nor too strong will boost the odds of a soft landing, but this is a delicate balance that can be challenging to achieve. 

Suggested ETFs (Note: Many members buy the standard ETFs or their preferred ETFs. This list serves as a guide as to which ETFs we think may outperform, but the key point is to be on the right side of the market regardless of which ETF or ETFs one chooses.)

1-times

SPY (S&P 500)

QQQ (NASDAQ-100)

2-times

SSO (S&P 500)

QLD (NASDAQ-100)

3-times

UPRO (S&P 500)

TQQQ (NASDAQ-100)

TECL (Direxion Trust Technology)


NOTE: This is a suggested list. Investors may wish to become acquainted with the full range of available ETFs, and should make an effort to understand how these ETFs are created and what their components are, as well as being aware of the downside risks involved, especially with leveraged ETFs. Certain ETFs may be more appropriate depending on one's risk tolerance levels. Typing in keyword 'ETF' into the FAQ keyword search bar or going here https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/faqs/search?p=1&q=etf  and visiting this site https://etfdb.com/  can be instructive.

This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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