Market Direction Model - Model switches to BUY on September 21, 2026

Published:

21 Sep 2026 10:15 ET

MDM will resume its BUY signal.

Fed hiked 25 bp. Market already priced it. Old playbook said rates up, stocks down.

Aside from global liquidity as the overarching force, AI and tech now drive the averages. Those names don’t live on consumer auto/housing debt. Earnings growth in the 20-30% range swamps a quarter-point move. AI ETF still green after the hike. NDX and SPX flat. That’s the tell.

Data-center buildouts aren’t 2006 mortgage paper. Different funding, lower rate sensitivity. Nominal GDP around 6%. The tape is unrestricted relative to 2022, but it is not unrestricted relative to a 22× market that needs the story to stay perfect.

Liquidity is the right umbrella — until it isn’t. Dollar, TGA, and global reserve growth still swamp 25 bp. They do not cancel a second hike plus a term-premium scare if issuance stays heavy.

Oil and small rate tweaks are noise. Leading stocks and the AI complex are the signal. Stay with constructive price/volume in the names that are actually growing.

Suggested ETFs (Note: Many members buy the standard ETFs or their preferred ETFs. This list serves as a guide as to which ETFs we think may outperform, but the key point is to be on the right side of the market regardless of which ETF or ETFs one chooses.)

1-times

SPY (S&P 500)
QQQ (NASDAQ-100)

2-times

SSO (S&P 500)
QLD (NASDAQ-100)

3-times

UPRO (S&P 500)
TQQQ (NASDAQ-100)
TECL (Direxion Trust Technology)

NOTE: This is a suggested list. Investors may wish to become acquainted with the full range of available ETFs, and should make an effort to understand how these ETFs are created and what their components are, as well as being aware of the downside risks involved, especially with leveraged ETFs. Certain ETFs may be more appropriate depending on one's risk tolerance levels. Typing in keyword 'ETF' into the FAQ keyword search bar or going here https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/faqs/search?p=1&q=etf and visiting this site https://etfdb.com/ can be instructive.

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