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Market Direction Model - Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL on February 5, 2018

The Market Direction Model has switched to a CASH signal. A cluster of distribution days including a stalling day on volume well above average have pushed the model into cash. Over the last couple of years, the markets have found a shallow floor then moved higher. Markets are forward looking thus may see further reductions of QE in Europe and Japan in the future as problematic. That said, such reductions may not be meaningful should the global economy not convincingly turn the corner. Onerous levels of debt remain, and as Deutsche Bank has pointed out, it will be the mother of all tests whether this ageing bull can withstand the unwinding of QE.

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