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Market Direction Model - Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL on March 13, 2023

Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL.

The Fed announced they will protect SVB depositors which should help restore confidence, but the Fed will have to do this for all banks that cannot honor withdrawals. Their newly created Bank Term Funding Program looks to do exactly this. They've pledged $25 billion but may have to do far more due to the $620 B in bank bond losses. Depending on the severity of the domino effect that may topple more banks, the Fed may have to launch QE once again much as they did after the 2008 financial collapse or after COVID hit. Both times were the start of major multi-year bull markets. This could be the end of rate hikes and the start of the big print. CME Fed Futures went from a 50 bps rate hike to a 50/50 chance of no move or a 25 bps hike when the Fed meets later this month. This together with increasing M2 from China and Japan could help hibernate the bear. In time, higher inflation could become the standard as the Fed could be forced to accept a higher inflation target well above 2% which Ray Dalio had predicted in one of his published pieces.

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