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Market Direction Model - Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL on May 3, 2024

Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL.

Today’s weak jobs report sent the dollar lower and yields higher. CME FedWatch is now pricing in two rate cuts.

In addition, Fed chair Powell during his testimony said they would start to taper the taper by reducing the Treasury runoff cap from $60 bil to $25 bil which was $5 bil above estimates. This is dovish thus bullish. But the issue of persistent inflation remains thus the number of rate cuts has dropped to just one by the end of the year. The dollar weakened and the 10-year Treasury rallied on the news, but we are not out of the woods yet. The Bitcoin downtrend remains intact for now while major stock market averages could be choppy going forward.

Stealth QE will increase on June 1 based on this reduction in the Treasury runoff cap. M2 % change from a year ago is about to turn positive, but until the inflation and interest rate situation improves, whether stealth QE and the tapering of the taper can push stock and crypto markets back into uptrends remains to be seen. We may be in store for chop suey markets.

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