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Market Direction Model - Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL on October 1, 2019

The model has switched to a CASH/NEUTRAL signal. The market has been sloppy with a cluster of distribution days over the last few weeks so is at greater odds of remaining this way or even suffering a more substantial correction given how leading stocks continue to underperform. Keep in mind the year before a Presidential election tends to be bullish overall, and QE is alive and accelerating. This has been reflected by the rising price of gold this year as well as the U.S. dollar against global currencies as fiat continues to debase. In non-QE markets, a rising dollar tends to be bearish for gold but in this 'golden' Age of QE, other central banks must dance to the tune of the U.S. Federal Reserve. As rates continue to fall, the U.S. being the world's reserve currency is strengthened and hard assets including gold are bolstered. Nevertheless, the more debt that gets monetized, the greater the debasement of all fiat thus the more bullish for hard assets.

As I've written, recession occurs most likely once QE exhausts itself. This can happen by seeing inflation in some countries spiral out of control, and/or by the Fed hiking rates at the wrong time, and/or by major countries such as Germany slipping into a full-blown recession, and/or the accelerated boost provided by exponential growth technologies occurring later than sooner. But in the meantime, the longer term trend in real estate, stocks, gold, and bitcoin remains up with the occasional sharp correction along the way. Central banks will not stop printing unless we get sufficient help from exponential growth technologies that help boost GDP thus gives the Fed room to hike rates. But this may not happen until after the recession.
This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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