Shortly after the MDM went to a buy signal, there was an escalation in Iran which sent the majors down in a hurry. Trump then announced a truce extension which reversed the selloff.
Expect heightened levels of volatility as this news-driven market unfolds. Position size accordingly.
1. **Overview**
**Crude oil** (**WTI**) spiked intraday on **April 23, 2026** (open **$90**, high **$98.40**, low **$87.64**) amid **Iran-US ceasefire** uncertainty, then reversed sharply, settling at **$96.59** (+**7.72%**, +**$6.92** from prior close **$89.67**). **Brent** hit ~**$103** before easing, tying to **Strait of Hormuz** tensions and vessel seizures.
2. **Reasons for the Spike (Earlier Today)**
- **Iran Escalation**: **IRGC** seized two cargo vessels near **Hormuz**, amid fragile truce; **U.S. Navy** blockade persists, reigniting supply fears (20% global oil transit).
- **Geopolitical Jitters**: Doubts on truce extension fueled **war premium**; **Dow** dropped **600 points** (~1%) on oil surge, stocks erased gains.
- **Technical Momentum**: Broke **$98** resistance post-**$119 YTD high**, volume **335k** lots (above avg.).
3. **Reasons for the Reversal (A Few Hours Ago)**
- **Ceasefire Extension Signals**: **President Trump** announced Iran truce extension minutes after **$430M** short bets (part of **$2.1B** April pattern), triggering drop as risk eased; U.S. probes suspicious trades for insider info.
- **Profit-Taking and Positioning**: Low-volume hours amplified reversal post-spike; offsets like reserves/pipelines muted fears.
- **Broader Relief**: No major escalation confirmed, shifting focus to demand worries (e.g., recession risks).
## Key Takeaways
- **Hormuz news** spiked, **Trump announcement** reversed—classic volatility in ongoing **Iran conflict** (~**$55-119 YTD** range).
- Watch probes/truce for swings; impacts **inflation/stocks** per your interests.