Another important reason for the decline in bitcoin related instruments and MSTR/MSTU which may keep the selling pressure on bitcoin alive:
- On October 10, 2025, MSCI formally announced an extended consultation on how to treat “digital asset treasury companies” (DATs) in its Global Investable Market Indexes.[1][4]
- MSCI explicitly proposed excluding companies whose digital asset holdings are ≥50% of total assets, and it published a preliminary list of potentially affected names (including MicroStrategy / “Strategy”).[1][4][5]
- The consultation runs through December 31, 2025, with final conclusions due by January 15, 2026, and any changes implemented at the February 2026 index review.[1][6][7]
## Link to MSTR and BTC price action
- JPMorgan put out a note warning that Strategy/MSTR could be removed from key equity indices (including MSCI USA), and estimated billions of dollars of potential forced outflows from passive/index-linked holders if exclusion happens.[2][8][3][9]
- Commentary from banks and crypto media explicitly connects the sharp underperformance of MSTR versus BTC to mounting fears around this MSCI decision, not just spot BTC weakness.[2][10][3][11]
- Some analyses also tie the October 10 crypto market break to the MSCI consultation announcement, arguing that the structural index-risk headline hit sophisticated players first, with the retail/press narrative catching up only once JPM and others highlighted the index angle.[5][11]
## On “advanced copies” and early positioning
- MSCI’s consultation notice itself is public and timestamped October 10, 2025, including the proposal, criteria, and preliminary list of names.[1][4]
- Large brokers, banks, and index-arb/quant shops typically monitor MSCI communications in real time, and many are also part of MSCI’s regular client consultation machinery.[12]
- While there is no hard public evidence that ~500 firms literally received “advanced copies” before October 10, it is entirely realistic that:
- Big institutions watched MSCI’s consult page and email channels closely and reacted immediately.
- Clients involved in the earlier phase of “stakeholder outreach” understood where MSCI was leaning before the formal public posting.
So your causal chain—
1. MSCI quietly socializes a DAT-exclusion framework with big stakeholders.
2. Those institutions begin derisking MSTR/other DATs ahead of or right as the October 10 notice goes live.
3. The broader market ignores it until JPMorgan (and others) explicitly frame it as a massive passive-flow risk and show the divergence of MSTR vs BTC.
4. The decision date of January 15, 2026 becomes a structural overhang—
is fully consistent with the documents and sell-side notes that are out there.[1][2][10][5][3]
## How to trade / frame it going forward
- Binary event: Jan 15, 2026 is effectively a structural “index inclusion” binary for MSTR and similar DAT names; exclusion likely triggers sizeable forced outflows over the Feb 2026 review window.[1][6][7][3]
- Risk premia: Until then, market should assign a discount to equity proxies whose value is heavily index-flow–dependent and mostly BTC-beta, versus direct BTC exposure.
- Information edge: The only potential “edge” now is being more precise about how much of each name is held by MSCI-linked and other index products, and how much selling a removal would imply, relative to daily liquidity.
So MSCI’s DAT consultation and index-exclusion risk is a highly credible structural driver of the MSTR underperformance and part of the October–November BTC-proxy correction narrative, with the key formal catalyst date sitting on January 15, 2026.[1][2][10][3][9]
Citations:
[1] EXTENSION OF THE CONSULTATION ON DIGITAL ... https://app2.msci.com/webapp/index_ann/DocGet?pub_key=0bZz7Im3vZU%3D&lang=en&format=html
[2] JPMorgan Flags “Severe” Index Risk for MicroStrategy as ... https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/179931
[3] JPMorgan Warns MSCI Decision Could Force Strategy Out ... https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/20/jpmorgan-warns-msci-decision-could-force-strategy-out-of-top-equity-indices
[4] Update to the Preliminary List of Digital Asset Treasury ... https://app2.msci.com/webapp/index_ann/DocGet?pub_key=xKkRZcJQZeM%3D&lang=en&format=html
[5] Strategy Counters MSCI FUD Tied to October 10th Bitcoin ... https://btctimes.com/strategy-counters-msci-fud-tied-to-october-10th-bitcoin-crash/
[6] MSCI considers excluding crypto-treasury companies from ... https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605076536
[7] Digital Asset Treasury Firms Face Pressure from MSCI Index Exclusion https://www.markets.com/news/msci-index-digital-asset-treasury-companies-exclusion-2539-en
[8] JPMorgan warns of MicroStrategy delisting risk from major ... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-warns-microstrategy-delisting-risk-103045451.html
[9] Strategy may face billions in outflows if excluded from ... https://seekingalpha.com/news/4524738-strategy-outflows-msci-indices-exclusion-jpmorgan
[10] MSCI May Exclude Digital Asset Treasury Firms, Putting “ ... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/msci-may-exclude-digital-asset-075439803.html
[11] MSCI's Crypto Classification Review Sparks October 10 ... https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/msci-s-crypto-classification-review-sparks-october-10-market-crash
[12] Index Consultations - MSCI https://www.msci.com/indexes/index-resources/index-consultations
[13] Strategy Isn't in S&P 500. Now It Could Get Kicked Out of ... https://www.barrons.com/articles/strategy-sp500-msci-indexes-c35cbcc5
[14] If Strategy is removed from major indices such as MSCI, it ... https://www.panewslab.com/en/articles/75742dee-bf0a-4008-ba65-637c5347aecd
[15] [PDF] Prudential plc Sustainability Report 2023 https://www.prudentialplc.com/~/media/Files/P/Prudential-V13/reports/2023/sustainability-report-2023.pdf
[16] Strategy risks $8.8 billion in outflows as MSCI exclusion ... https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/22f32e98-e53d-406e-aded-dc61217e77a7
[17] [PDF] Sustainability Report 2024 - Swire Pacific https://www.swirepacific.com/storage/fm/2024SustainabilityReport/report-en.pdf
[18] MSCI index likely to kick out crypto treasuries, exec warns https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:de1221f2a094b:0-msci-index-likely-to-kick-out-crypto-treasuries-exec-warns/
[19] [PDF] ESG Ratings Report - ING Groep N.V. https://www.ing.com/MediaEditPage/ING-Groep-NV-ESG-Ratings-Report-15.htm
[20] Michael Saylor Says Index Classification 'Doesn't Define ... https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/saylor-says-index-classification-doesnt-define-mstr-amid-msci-exclusions/cLPMq8QREOq