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Market Lab Report - Gil's Take

My view of the market currently is a little more nuanced than the idea that the "bulls are back." The overnight action shows that despite the Senate passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, stocks are not rocketing higher across the board. Instead, we see interest rates move back towards last week's highs as the stimulus brings into focus the idea of "hot" economy. Are higher rates compatible with a higher market? I think they can be, but we would likely see more emphasis on stocks that are not high-PE or high PE-expansion names, namely stuff-stocks like industrial metals, agriculturals, materials, oil, etc. as well as re-opening plays. So I would look for a shift here if the market is going to move higher.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be speaking at 7:00 a.m. PST, 10 a.m. EST today, so watch for any change in the current sweet-talk regarding higher rates as indicative of "confidence in the economy." Ultimately, the Fed cannot allow rates to get too high, as this would create unbearable interest expenses for a national debt that is now hitting $29.3 trillion once this new bill gets past the House today or tomorrow. Stay alert to changes and shifts as the same old things may not repeat as major leaders.
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