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Market Lab Report - Odds shift on when first rate reduction after Powell's statement

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved down to 3.5% in October, the lowest since April 2021. The Fed Funds Rate is now 1.8% above Core PCE, the most restrictive monetary policy we've seen since 2007.


After Powell spoke earlier today, CME FedWatch now predicts the first rate reduction in March 2024 instead of May 2024. He pointed out how the Fed's past tightening moves will continue to have an impact on the economy while the full impact hasn't been felt yet. He said he was surprised on the upside this year with inflation coming down "meaningfully" even though still "well above" target but moving in the right direction. Said the Fed does not need to be in a rush now as "we are getting what we wanted to get". He said wage growth is still high but moderating to a more sustainable level, unemployment up but still historically low, and the job market has cooled but still strong. Bitcoin and stocks rallied after he gave his prepared remarks.
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