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Market Lab Report - Pre-Market Pulse for Thursday, May 31, 2018

Major market indexes recovered from Tuesday's sell-off as the NASDAQ Composite Index broke out of its two-week price range to post a higher high. The Russell 2000 Index made a new all-time high after pulling back over the prior two trading days.

Futures are roughly flat at the time of this writing. The Federal Reserve is all but certain to continue on its course for higher rates as CME’s “Fed Watch” tool predicts a 76% chance of a rate increase at the policy makers meeting in June, then at least one more rate hike is expected for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, Europe has not made any clear signs toward tightening its policies, and no global central bank has made any meaningful changes in their monetary policies as QE continues to flow at near record levels. In fact, investors are putting only 30% odds on a European Central Bank increase over the next 12 months after the turmoil from Italy’s vote. This dislocation between the U.S. Federal Reserve's tightening policies and the rest of the world's global central banks who are unable to tighten could keep the stock market in a chop zone.

As for the issues in Italy, the possibility of Italy being next to conduct a referendum on whether to remain in the EU is the symptom, not the root cause of turmoil in Europe. A number of leaders including Conservative leader David Cameron have been critical of the EU in the years prior to the Brexit vote with one party leader saying after the recent vote: “Today Italy is not free; it is occupied financially by Germans, French and eurocrats.”

Focus List Notes:
The list continues to perform well as AMZN, BZUN, FTNT, NFLX, and SQ all posted all-time closing high. NVDA remains the "laggard" but it is holding above its 10-dma and bumping up against its prior base breakout point. If the general market continues to move higher, we would not be surprised to see NVDA also post a higher high.

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