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Market Lab Report - Premarket Pulse 11/3/16

Major averages fell for the seventh day in a row. The US Federal Reserve kept rates pat as expected. This time, however, they did not make any mention of a possible rate hike at the December meeting, unlike in November 2015 when they did use such language. Nevertheless, prior to the Fed's statement, Fed futures put the odds of a hike in December at nearly 70%. After the statement, odds rose to 72%.

The Market Direction Model has been on its sell signal since October 21. It will be interesting to see if markets continue their correction in anticipation of a probable rate hike in December since markets are forward looking.

Meanwhile, we are seeing more and more leading stocks break down, and this morning we can add FB to this growing list. We might suggest that members could watch for a rally up closer to the 50-day moving average as a potential short-sale point on the premise that the stock is now turning into a late-stage failed-base (LSFB) short-sale set-up.

The Bank of England today kept interest rates on hold and signaled there would be no further easing in 2016, citing stronger-than-expected economic data. The central bank's policy makers voted unanimously to maintain the benchmark rate at a record low of 0.25% and keep its quantitative easing program at £435 billion ($542.96 billion). The bank said, "These data suggest that the near-term outlook for activity is stronger than expected three months ago." In its quarterly inflation report, the BOE lifted its inflation outlook for 2017 to 2.7% from 2% forecast in the August inflation report. It also raised its 2017 economic growth outlook to 1.4% from 0.8%.

The markets have telegraphed that Brexit is ultimately good for the UK economy as it is one step in the direction of greater economic freedoms as it decouples from the burdensome EU. That said, there have been expected roadblocks in preventing Brexit to occur such as today when UK high court ruled the government can’t trigger the Brexit process without approval from parliament. The UK government will appeal. The Brexit process may be a lengthy one as some have speculated.

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