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Market Lab Report - Premarket Pulse 11/7/16

Major averages closed down for a ninth day in a row on Friday. Volume was mixed. The S&P 500 bounced off its 200-day moving average but the quality of the bounce was poor as markets did an about face to close near the lows of their respective trading ranges. By the close the S&P had returned to its 200-day moving average, ending the week just above the line. The last time the S&P 500 fell nine days in a row was in December 1980. It then staged a 7-day rally. But back then, the 9 day correction was pronounced at-10.8% compared to the correction we have today of just -3.1%.

Investors seem unwilling to hold stocks ahead of tomorrow's election. The environment has clearly been risk-off as the Russell 2000 has fallen the most of the major averages. Meanwhile, financials as shown by ETF XLF have resisted the downtrend to some extent as higher rates are expected as soon as this December. Odds of a rate hike currently stand at 72%.

The jobs data came in weak as most of the new jobs creation were that of temp jobs. A major changeover in the business model has been taking place over the last many years. One used to get their 4-year degree then focus on finding permanent, full-time work, and then maybe even retire 40 years later with a gold watch as a parting gift having devoted their life to the same company.

Today, many graduates with college debt cannot find work. Further, those who do find work often find themselves as temps since companies do not have to offer dental or medical plans thus save money this way. There is also less legal liability to let go of a temp worker than a permanent hire.

Unless one's work is highly specialized or they are co-founders of their company, the likelihood of a person staying at the same job in today's world is far less likely to occur. Often one is made redundant as companies continue to cost cut by firing the full-timers and hiring temp workers instead.

In election news, the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers "found that investor perception of stock-market risk rose with Mr. Trump's estimated chance." The firm even suggested that should Trump win, the S&P 500 could tumble by 7%, while if Clinton wins, it could rise by 4%.

Over the weekend, FBI Director James Comey stated he still retains his original position that Clinton should not be charged. Upon reopening, futures initially surged Sunday evening by around 1.5% as a result, and this morning are spiking higher by about 1.6%. That said, less mainstream polls still show Trump ahead of Clinton as a vote for Trump represents a vote for the anti-establishment.

Likewise, Brexit REMAIN was favored by 4% but the British people voted 4% for LEAVE, shocking the markets, as this too was an act of the British people, in this case, casting their vote against the EU establishment elite.

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