Major averages rose on lower volume with the S&P 500 getting support at its 50-day moving average. Real support usually is accompanied by higher trading volumes which was not the case on Friday. In addition, as an aggregate, defensive names continue to outshine leading stocks. Utility stocks have been on a tear and gold has come to life as the loss of confidence in central banks and governments continue to rise.
Despite the Federal Reserve's William Dudley saying he expects two rate hikes later this year, fed futures shows the odds of the first hike only rise above 50% when they meet on December 21, thus should the global economy remain in a quagmire or continue their decelerating trend, any rate hikes may be put off until 2017. It is also possible the Fed reverses its prior rate hike and begins to adopt negative rates as Yellen has kept the door open to that possibility.
While the market is in a logical position from which to launch a reaction rally and bounce, it may be short-lived. Such a rally might bring short-sale targets back into shortable range which we discuss in our SSS report.
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