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Market Lab Report - Premarket Pulse 6/20/16

Major averages fell on higher, triple witching volume with the NASDAQ Composite dipping back below its 200-day moving average. All major averages except for the small cap Russell 2000 are trading below their respective 50-day lines.

The market continues to potentially trace out a major top that began last July. Not coincidentally, falling interest rates have failed to spur the markets higher since mid-2015, unlike in years past when markets continued to hit new highs. This is a sign that markets are losing confidence in the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Over in the UK, the Brexit vote takes place this Thursday. The most recent polls now show more voters now prefer the UK to remain in the EU. Futures are up strongly on this news, trading higher by more than 1% while European markets are bouncing 3-4% at the time of this writing. The US has been pressuring the UK to do what it can to insure it remains in the EU.

Given strong odds that the UK will remain in the EU, this will serve to push the inevitable breakdown and breakup of the EU further off into the future. Nevertheless, governments aim to preserve the status quo instead of finding a proper solution to the mess in which they and the rest of the world finds itself as the problems are deep, widespread, and only getting worse.

With the illusion of "order" being maintained, QE can continue to push reluctant US markets higher while over in the UK and in Europe, markets continue their slow decline which started mid-2014, have been in bear market territory, off roughly 1/4 to 1/3 from their mid-2014 peak prices, and roughly 40% off their all-time highs achieved in late 2007. You read it right. Despite all the easy money policies being aggressively pursued by central banks, UK and European stock markets have never recovered their losses suffered from the financial meltdown in 2008, and have been eroding since mid-2014.

Indeed, the markets are telegraphing us a clear signal that should the current QE-based policies remain in place, the price paid may be beyond measure.

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