Major averages finished mixed on higher volume with the S&P 500 roughly breakeven, the NASDAQ Composite down, and the DJIA up. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA are under their respective 50-day moving averages while the NASDAQ has failed to hold its recent breakout to all-time highs. Volume was substantially higher all around due to the annual Russell rebalancing.
All of that is moot, however, as futures are trading down more than 1% at the time of this writing this morning as problems in Greece heat up. European markets are trading substantially lower while Asian markets closed down 2-3% on the news out of Greece.
The broken record continues. ECB President Mario Draghi will likely stress that any issues with Greece will be contained, on point to the ECB’s ability to provide any additional assistance necessary to mitigate spillover into other regions in the event of a Greek default or "Grexit". That said, Morgan Stanley just lifted its probability of a Grexit in 12 to 18 months to 60% from 45%.
Since last November, the market has continued to trade in a sloppy sideways manner, making little headway in either direction. As soon as it looks as if the market is going to have a nasty slide, it finds its footing then moves higher. As soon as it looks as if the market is going to breakout to the upside in a sustainable trend, it pauses and heads lower.
Timing the indices, thus, has been the ever formidable challenge. Fortunately, individual stocks continue to provide profits, and in some cases, the profits can be quite substantial. As we have guided members, stocks that get ahead of themselves, quickly offering an 8%, 10%, 12%+ profit, should be at least partially sold while some other stocks may do no wrong and offer far greater gains (25%, 35%, 45%+) before being sold.
Developing one's chart eye for price in context with the stock's chart and the general market is key. We continue to teach investors through our webinars, the FAQs, and the email notifications so one can take their chart reading ability to new heights.
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