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Market Lab Report - Premarket Pulse 7/9/18

The market rallied on news the June nonfarm payrolls increased by 213,000 vs. est 195,000. The prior month's increase was revised to 244,000 from 223,000. Nonfarm private payrolls rose by 202,000 vs. est 192,000. The previous month's increase was revised to 239,000 from 218,000.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% vs. est +0.3%, while the previous month's increase was left unrevised at 0.3%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.0% vs. est 3.8% from 3.8%.

Volumes remain bearish for the major indices as bounces come on lower or below average volume while down days come on increasing volume. The cluster of distribution days has been pronounced.

Meanwhile, FAANG and other leading names are more or less mirroring the sloppy distributive action of the NASDAQ Composite as they struggle to find direction. That said, Friday's action was a stab at a potentially sustainable bounce as global QE remains a constant in pushing stocks and markets higher on a string. The handful of stocks that have bucked the current correction are only now just trying to achieve lift off from their respective 10- or 20-day moving averages with the number of names at new highs is few and far between.  

Chinese names remain damaged with many trading around their 50 such as MOMO and BZUN, or 200 day lines such as BABA, then continuing to struggle for even a meager bounce as trade uncertainty remains, and these are the stronger names. Others have been pummelled well below their 200-day lines such as VIPS, WB, and WUBA. 

Trade wars are never bullish for markets. Both the US and China have launched salvos in the form of retaliatory tariffs against one another amounting to $34 billion. Any further escalation would be a major headwind for markets along with the future direction of interest rates. The Federal Reserve continues to take a hawkish stance of further rate hikes ahead, but the headroom for higher rates is diminishing, thus QT may have to once again become QE, or worse, an outright devaluation of fiat across a number of currencies based on the long term debt cycle which Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has discussed at length. 

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