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Market Lab Report - Premarket Pulse 8/3/16

Major averages fell yesterday on higher volume as European banks took a hit and Japanese bonds fell sharply overnight. The UK's PMI signaled contraction ahead of tomorrow's policy statement from the Bank of England. Expect continued dovish postures from central banks.

Headlines have been prattling on about how August and September are two of the weakest months for the US stock market. But this statistic is relatively meaningless. Since 1972, August has indeed been a weak month. Its average return since then was -0.35% due to some years where the market had some steep falls. But the percent of the time the market was up in August was 54%.

September was the worst performing month with the average month down -0.93% from 1972-2015, and down 55% of the time. But that means it was up 45% of the time.

So as always, it is far more important to focus on price/volume action of major indices and leading stocks to guide the way.

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