Major averages finished roughly flat to slightly up on Friday on lower volume. Expect elevated levels of volatility to continue for the time being as such levels are typical following a short, sharp correction. Most formerly leading/leading stocks have done little more than rally back up into the "underbellies" of their chart patterns, with many names pushing right into potential overhead resistance. Whether they are able to move higher over time remains to be seen, but for now the odds favor at least some sort of retest of last week's lows.
Core inflation fell in July giving the Federal Reserve another reason to delay hiking rates when they meet in September. The Fed was leaning toward a rate hike in September until China's currency devaluation according to Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer. Fischer was upbeat about the economy and said he was confident that inflation would return to 2% in the medium term.
As we wrote to our members on 8/27/15: Some analysts including Ray Dalio who is the CEO of Bridgewater think that the Fed is lining up for another round of QE, or QE4. With global central banks in full throttle money printing mode, and with the global economy nearing recession, central banks have less and less room to manipulate markets higher, thus should the Fed eventually paint itself into a corner, a loss of confidence in the Fed could spark a far more serious correction down the road. But making predictions of if and when such a crash would occur is futile.
As always, with all the market crash talk that has been asked of us these days, we examine markets in real-time, day to day, so that gives us enough to know what to do on the long and/or short side. Keep in mind that no one has ever demonstrated with any consistent reliability the ability to predict the timing or depth of market crashes. The future doesnt exist. At www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com, all we need to know is the now.
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