Major averages fell Friday on lower, pre-holiday volume. From a contrarian standpoint, the number of bears shot higher and the put-call ratio continues to spike above 1.0 which would imply the market may bounce again sooner than expected. Futures are up sharply this morning after overnight rallies in China and Europe. The action is not unexpected as the market is still working off the capitulation low of three Mondays ago, and could remain choppy for a period of time. As always, keep stops tight as elevated levels of volatility is expected to continue.
Overnight, data showed Chinese exports fell in August for a second straight month, underscoring concerns that the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum. Futures are nevertheless up about 1.5% at the time of this writing as China is expected to increase their levels of quantitative easing and may also allow the yuan to weaken once again.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 16-17. CME futures show the probably of a rate hike now stands at just 19%.
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