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MDM - Model switches to BUY on July 10, 2013

The model has switched to a buy. While the Fed minutes are due out at 2pm EST, the model bases its decisions not on such events which can go either way, but on prior price/volume action within major indices and leading stocks, as well as second order price/volume action (bonds, dollar, etc) which can influence the major markets. Such in the nature of the model which seeks intermediate trends rather than day or swing trades. Of course, trends over the last couple of years have been scant but such periods always come to an end when least expected. Prior bleak periods include October 1998 when short interest skyrocketed due to belief the market was going to crash, October 1999 when things seemed bleak, and QE1 and QE2 when the economy and action of leading stocks were both poor. Price/volume action indicates that QE3 uptrend is intact. Markets are probably desensitized to a repeat of what the Fed said on May 22 which created the high volume downside reversal.

The NASDAQ Composite closed Tuesday at a new 12+ year high while the Russell 2000 made a new high last Friday. While volumes have been on the lower side, quantitative easing has been known to push markets higher into uptrends on low volume. Leading stocks including 3D printing stocks, alternative energy stocks, and leading internet names such as GOOG, AMZN, and PCLN continue to lead the way.

Suggested ETFs


IWM (Russell 2000)

SPY (S&P 500) - slightly lower beta than IWM so slightly less reward but also less risk.


UWM (Russell 2000)

SSO (S&P 500) - slightly lower beta than UWM so slightly less reward but also less risk.


TNA (Russell 2000)

UPRO (S&P 500) - slightly lower beta than TNA so slightly less reward but also less risk.


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