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MLR - Bernanke's press conference and what it means for precious metals

At today's press conference, Bernanke said he thought inflation would subside as energy prices and other commodity prices moderate. He also guided growth lower. He also said unemployment would subside only slightly: 9.1% in May 2011 — between 8.6% and 8.9% in 2011, falling to a range of 7.8% and 8.2% in 2012, and down to a range of 7% to 7.5% by the end of 2013.

Should we have lower inflation on the horizon, the fed has the comfort zone of keeping rates at current historically low levels, which they hope will eventually spark growth, though the spark will probably be just that, a spark, not anything more. On the other hand, if the fed is wrong about inflation and it ends up heading higher, then we could have a low growth/high inflation situation on our hands, also known as stagflation. In the 1970s, stagflation dominated the markets and was excellent for the performance of precious metals (PMs).

As for the debt ceiling, Bernanke said the Fed would keep the debt ceiling at its current level. This is neutral for PMs. On the other hand, some central banks around the world continue to print money, so that bodes well for PMs. And China plans to mint more gold panda coins as they still need to stockpile precious metals as a hedge against a world of devaluing currencies. But should China have an economic slowdown, this could create less demand for PMs.

As you can see, while there are many tailwinds at work which should bode well for PMs, there are cross currents at work which could make the rise a bumpy one so, as always, watch price/volume action of precious metal ETFs and obey your stops.

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This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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