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MLR - Intraday Market Commentary August 10, 2011

Three brief points:


1) Gold and silver are entitled to pulling back, perhaps as they did in late 2008 or post flash crash 2010, and silver's decoupling from gold may indicate recessionary fears. Silver is perhaps perceived more as an industrial metal, thus follows the direction of other commodites which have recently tanked. Gold meanwhile has many tailwinds:

=Fiat currency printing (quantitative easing) in the U.S. and in Europe. The PIIGS are bankrupt so expect more money printing out of the ECB (European Central Bank).

=Limited spending cuts and limited tax increases via the eventual agreement to hike the debt ceiling.

=A safe haven when investors get scared, ie, the fear trade.

=Demand on gold from fast growing countries such as China.

=Stagflation in the U.S. is in the offing (high inflation, low growth). Remember how well precious metals did in the 1970s? Gold is not just a safe haven but also is a hedge against inflation. As more money gets printed, the higher gold will rise.


In theory, other commodities should also rise as dollar devalues but commodites also have headwinds such as fears of a recession, thus weaker demand.


2) Long bonds have been moving higher, much as they did in late 2008. See TLT which corresponds to Barclay's Capital 20+ year U.S. treasury index. This is an indication of flight to quality. Even though U.S. debt was downgraded, massive fear causes money to flow into the safest places. The U.S. long bond is still perceived as relatively safe. Further, quantitative easing a la the rise in the debt ceiling will enable the fed to buy bonds thus keep rates low.


3) The Swiss franc has been skyrocketing against the dollar. Gold correlates to some degree with the Swiss franc. Long term views are that the dollar will continue to fall, and that the Swiss franc is a strong currency, especially relative to the U.S. dollar.

Longer term investors should hold and pyramid their holdings in gold. Shorter term investors may want to take some profits here in gold, and buy on a pullback.

For those following the Market Direction Model, expect the general market to trade in a volatile, sloppy manner, much as it did post 2008 crash and post 2010 flash crash.

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