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MLR - PMP 4/16/14

Major averages rose on higher volume with the NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 bouncing off their respective 200-day moving averages. This type of strong support on volume may create a sustainable bounce of some sort for a period of a few days, especially as quantitative easing works its "magic". But price/volume action says otherwise. The question remains whether fighting the fed's QE will continue to work to the Market Direction Model's sell signal's advantage as it has so far. In times past since January 2013 when the Fed went to full bore QE, the market has always found a shallow floor from which to rally. This time, however, damage done to leaders has been more pronounced, so a continuation of the downtrend despite the above seems likely. As trade lightens up going into the long three-day holiday weekend, the market may be able to grind higher over the next couple of days in a logical reaction rally following yesterday's action in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Indexes.

Several oil-related stocks had pocket pivots including SN, BCEI, SLCA, SLB, and SWN. Commodities have seemed to turn a corner as the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index finally reversed a downtrend that started in mid-2011. On the other hand, precious metals gold and silver look to be breaking down on higher volume after their attempted bottom.

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