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MLR - PMP 6/28/13

Major averages moved higher once again though in mixed volume. Economic news came in mixed, with initial jobless claims data, personal spending, and the Fed's manufacturing survey worse than expected, and personal income and pending home sales better than expected. Later in the morning one of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents, Narayana Kocherlakota, said that the central bank hasn't become more hawkish and called for more clarity in how the central bank communicates with the public, William Dudley, head of the New York Federal Reserve, said the Fed could actually increase levels of quantitative easing if U.S. economic growth and the labor market do not strengthen sufficiently. Finally, Pimco's Bill Gross, doubting that unemployment would fall to 7% by the middle of next year, said the Fed's forecast of the economy is far too optimistic as structural headwinds will continue to weigh on domestic and global growth. Further, inflation is around 1%, well below the Fed's target of 2%, and maximum target of 2 1/2%. Thus Gross says yields have adjusted too much, overreacting to Bernanke's recent testimony. A bounce in the markets is not surprising given these views, and could thus resume their QE-driven uptrend.

So far, most of the upside in the market in each day has come in overnight action, resulting in a futures-led gap-up the next day followed by the market moving around in a very tight range. Today is the fourth day of the rally attempt off of the Monday lows, hence investors should be alert to the possibility of a follow-through day given the position of the indexes. Given the muted action of the futures this morning, it is not clear what sort of catalyst would drive such a move in the markets today.

Internet wholesaler Overstock.com (OSTK) broke out of its ascending base in today's trade. While a thin stock, earnings have rocketed higher, and the stock overall has managed to resist the sideways to mildly downtrending move in the major markets. Industry group rank 19.

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