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MLR - PMP 8/29/13

Major averages were slightly up on lower volume, finished roughly mid-bar. As this is not particularly impressive action after the selloff, a dead cat bounce is potentially in the cards. That said, tensions in Syria eased for now, pushing futures up this morning around 0.4%-0.5% at the time of this writing.

The Fed may be slow to taper as a bigger-than-expected 1.3% monthly fall in July pending home sales supplied further evidence that the housing market is cooling off. Home-building stocks and REITs, which had been acting strongly earlier in the year, topped over three months ago, likely presaging what current data is showing. The housing group is now ranked at the bottom 10% of all industry groups. A revised Q2 GDP number of 2.5% vs. a consensus of 2.1% and a preliminary number of 1.7% this morning, however, provides a counter-weight to the weak data and further obfuscates the possibility and magnitude of QE tapering. The market may continue to exhibit further volatility as the uncertainty in this regard persists.

Green Mountain Coffee Growers (GMCR) had enough volume for a pocket pivot but an extended one. Earnings has accelerated but sales have decelerated. GMCR has recently broken out of a sideways consolidation after gapping up on a strong earnings report back in May. Its most recent earnings report resulted in a sell-off that resulted in a mid-bar close, and the stock was then able to recover and breakout to new highs. Given market conditions, this is not considered actionable at this time.

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