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MLR - PMP 9/12/13

The major averages closed mixed yesterday on lower volume, but managed to finish near their intraday highs suggesting support and a continuation of the uptrend. Sizeable gains have been made by a number of leading stocks over the last few days. The S&P 500 outpaced the NASDAQ Composite as oil exploration, homebuilder, lodging, and paper groups all rose more than 1%. On the one hand, strong economic data out of the US, China, and Germany point to economies turning the corner. On the other hand, the most recent unemployment report indicates weakness, thus even if the Fed begins to taper sooner than later, it may be done in such a way to have minimal impact on upsetting the recovery.

Precious metals are down again today, with both gold and silver down sharply, a sign that tapering is near. As the global economy has shown signs of strength, diminishing quantitative easing could come not just from the Federal Reserve but also from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

Apple (AAPL) gapped lower and currently rests at its 200-day moving average. Such negative technical action bodes poorly for the stock. Yesterday saw no actionable buy points emerge in leading stocks, a sign that many are extended. Thus investors might look for some consolidation and digestion of prior gains here as the market heads into next week's key Fed policy meeting and announcement next Wednesday.

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