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MLR - PMP 9/8/14

Major averages rose Friday on lower volume. While the month of September had typically spelled more trouble for the market going back more than 100 years, QE has changed this as markets tend to push higher in relentless baby stepping fashion. Since 2009 when QE began, QE 1, 2, and 3 have pushed markets higher.

Here is how QE 1, 2, or 3 affected the market the month of September:

Sept 2009 - QE1 on. Market up.
Sept 2010 - QE2 on. Market up.
Sept 2011 - QE2 had ended. Market down for September.
Sept 2012 - Operation Twist on. Market up.
Sept 2013 - QE3 on. Market up.

So as you can see, in every year where QE 1, 2, or 3 was on, September was up. This flies in the face of September months going back 100 years where September was clearly the worst performing month. In fact, it was the only month over this lengthy timeframe that was appreciably lower while all other months were, on average, up at least a small amount. If one accounts for the fact that the market has changed since the market top in March 2000, one still can observe September being one of the three worst performing months with June and August being the other two.

The number of pocket pivot and buyable gap up reports we sent to members last week continues to show a number of actionable stocks. So should September be another up month as QE3 remains on, this should bode well for such stocks. That said, those who have done well this year take their profits when they have them in context, of course, with the overall chart. And sell stops are kept tighter than normal so losses are smaller when they do occur. Thus the winners tend to more than outweigh the losers, and over time, one's profit can grow, even if in baby step or bunny hop fashion. 

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This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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