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MLR - Premarket Pulse August 26, 2013

Major averages rose on higher volume Friday,, not surprising given Thursday's artificially low volume due to a glitch in the NASDAQ which affected all markets. That said, the major averages traded on below-average volume, though the S&P 500 managed to close just above its 50-day moving average.

One Fed governor said the tapering of quantitative easing should be delayed since the Fed has room to wait given low inflation. Another Fed governor said tapering should start in September. Such dissenting opinions creates what we call "schizofedic" market action, or the inability for the market to trace out a discernible trend. This action has been somewhat true since the Fed released its minutes, though the S&P 500 has been in a downtrend for the last 3 weeks, and an uptrend has been absent over the last 5 weeks.

Since markets are forward-looking by typically 5 to 9 months, the bond market has been telegraphing tapering for a number of months while the stock market has been slower to the punch, having started its downtrend only about 3 weeks ago, but then, stocks have the QE tailwind to push them higher.

With positive action from stocks on which we sent reports to members on Friday, this could hint that the market has found its floor and will move higher from here on a tapering of QE being delayed for longer than expected. The Market Direction Model sizes up price/volume action from leading stocks and major indices so would move out of its current sell signal if such be the case.

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